朝鲜和韩国会成为统一的国家吗
Tomaž Vargazon
Odds of that are falling by the year. The problem with the two Koreas is manyfold. Often East and West Germany are used for comparison, but that comparison fails. Two Germanies were truly separated between 1961 and 1989, that’s 27 years. Look at a calendar, 「27 years ago」 isn’t at some distant point during the Cold War any more. It’s 1997, well into the internet era. There was contact between East and West prior to 1961 and even if you go all the way back to 1945, the separation still only lasted for 44 years.
这种可能性正在逐年下降。
朝韩之间的问题是多方面的。东德和西德经常被用来作比较，但这种比较是不成立的。两个德国在1961年到1989年间真正分离，也就是27年。看看日历，「27年前」不再是冷战时期的某个遥远时刻。那是1997年，互联网时代刚刚开始。在1961年之前，东西德之间就有接触，即使你严格算到1945年，这种分离也只持续了44年。
The two Koreas have been separated since 1945, with essentially no contact since 1953. That’s over 70 years at this point, very few of the elderly can still remember the time prior to that and that time was anything but pleasant anyhow.
The separation was far harsher than with two Germanies, you could get West German TV in most of East Germany. Watching South Korean TV in the north is punishable by harsh prison sentences or death. Languague changed too, North Koreans went with an older form of Korean and resisted outside influences.
Mental processes too changed, right now the two Koreas are two different nations and adapting to South Korean life as a defector as as challenging as adapting to a North Korean life style would be.
朝韩两国自1945年以来一直处于分裂状态，自1953年以来基本上没有联系。到现在已经70多年了，很少有老年人还记得在那之前的时光，无论如何，那段时间一点也不愉快。这种分离比两个德国的分离要严重得多，你在东德的大部分地区都能看到西德电视。在朝鲜看韩国电视会被处以严厉的监禁或死刑。
语言也发生了变化，朝鲜人使用了一种更古老的朝鲜语，并抵制了外界的影响。心理过程也发生了变化，现在朝韩是两个不同的国家，作为一个脱北者，适应韩国的生活和适应朝鲜的生活方式一样具有挑战性。
It is entirely possible the two Koreas will grow apart to a point where they will be two distinct nations. They’re more than halfway there, I would say. A reunification is still possible at this point, although it wouldn’t be nearly as easy as it was with Germany - and 35 years into German reunification it still isn’t finished by the way. It’s come a long way, but not finished and won’t be for another several decades at least.
南北朝鲜完全有可能分裂成两个不同的国家。我想说，他们已经在迈向两个独立国家的方向上走了一大半了。在这一点上，统一仍然是可能的，尽管它不会像德国那样容易——顺便说一下，德国统一35年了，这个进程仍然没有完成。它已经走了很长一段路，但还没有完成，至少在未来几十年内也不会完成。
Rob C
…I wonder whether South Korea would even want reunification at this point. The cost would likely bankrupt them.
我不知道韩国现在是否想要统一，成本可能会使他们破产。
Tomaž Vargazon
Not just 「at this point」, but 「at any point in the past 40 years」. Same reason.
不仅是「现在」，是「过去40年里任何时候」。理由同上。
Zinserhöhung
Both sides always wanted to unify before the new president took office, of course each side wants to annexe the other Korea under its own system as they know a unified Korea will be more powerful. There has been a Ministry of Unification in South Korea. South Korea’s former president Moon Jae-in is a son of North Korean refugees and the hometown of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is actually in South Korea.
在新总统上任之前，双方都想统一，当然双方都想把另一个朝鲜并入自己的体制，因为他们知道统一的朝鲜会更强大。韩国有一个统一部。
韩国前总统文在寅是朝鲜难民的儿子，朝鲜领导人金正恩的家乡实际上在韩国。
Frank
If Korea has been separated for 70 years, how can the North Korean leaders home town be in the south? He's not over 70 years old.
如果朝鲜半岛已经分裂了70年，朝鲜领导人的家乡怎么会在南方?他还不到70岁。
Zinserhöhung
Hometown is where the ancestors are originally from. His family originated from Jeonju, North Joella Province in South Korea. In 1860, his great-great-grandfather, Kim Ung-u, settled in Pyongyang North Korea.
家乡是祖先的故乡。他的家族是全州人。1860年，他的曾曾祖父Kim Ung-u在朝鲜平壤定居。
Frank
I see, so he's not from there. Has never been there. Only the family from long past oriented from there.
I'd say that somewhat deceiving
我明白了，所以他不是本地人。从来没有去过那里。只是家人从很久以前就离开了那里。
我得说这有点骗人。
Xuanzi
Ancestral home*
Hometown is where one grew up.
那是祖籍。
家乡指的是你的出生地。
Ben Chan
The North was richer than the South when the separation took place.
南北分离时，北方比南方富裕。
Mike Mike
Was
过去是过去。
Martin David McCoy
I’m not sure that was true because the separation happened after the Japanese occupied Korea and their defeat. The com...sts took the North when China com...sts backed them and Seoul was the largest city in the country and they were in the south. The North was always more agricultural than the South who had more industry.
我不确定这是真的，因为分离发生在日本占领朝鲜并战败之后。朝鲜共产党在中国***的支持下占领了北方，首尔是全国最大的城市，他们占领在南方。北方总是比南方更注重农业，而南方有更多的工业。
Eugene Cho
Its the opposite, the South was agrarian, mainly rice patties. The North inherited Japanese shipyards at Wonson and other heavy industry.
For the first eight years after separation North Korea was by far the safer bet to prosper.
Why Do Some Nations Prosper? The Case of North and South Korea - Foreign Policy Research Institute
The South Korean government ultimately took a page from post war Japan’s government sponsored corporate welfare program that created Sony, Mitsubishi, Toshiba, Panasonic/National etc using very favorable tax structures, very low interest loans, protectionist import policies etc. This was the keiretsu system and was monumentally successful.
How Eight Conglomerates Dominate Japanese Industry
The South Korean version was called the Chaebol, and resulted in corporate giants like Hyundai, Samsung, LG (Lucky Goldstar), etc.
Korean Chaebols explained: the empires of South Korea
相反，南方以农业为主，主要是大米。朝鲜继承了日本在元山的造船厂和其他重工业。
在分离后的头八年里，朝鲜是更安全的繁荣选择。
链接：【为什么有些国家会繁荣?朝鲜和韩国的案例】——外交政策研究所
韩国政府最终借鉴了战后日本政府赞助的企业福利计划，利用非常优惠的税收结构、非常低的利率贷款、保护主义进口政策等。这些政策曾经也创造了索尼、三菱、东芝、松下等公司。这就是企业联盟制度，而且取得了巨大的成功。
链接：【八大集团如何主宰日本工业】
韩国的版本被称为财阀，并产生了现代、三星、LG等企业巨头。
链接：【韩国财阀的解释：韩帝国】
Martin David McCoy
After doing some further research, I stand corrected.
在做了进一步的了解之后，我更正我的立场。
Santosh Kumar
Because it would take the threat of nuclear warfare away from them. Also they are running out of people, reunification should kick that can down the road for atleast a few decades.
因为这将使他们远离核战争的威胁。此外，他们的人口正在耗尽，统一应该能把这个问题推迟至少几十年。
Calin CETERAS
They are running out of South Korean people. Reunification will not solve that problem.
And by the way, the East Germans were basically the best of the com...st nations, and they still had issues of integration.
韩国劳动力在枯竭，统一不会解决这个问题。
顺便说一下，东德基本上是共产主义国家中经济条件最好的，（即便如此）他们仍然有融合的问题。
John Mears
North koreans are running out of people as well.
Otherwise Kim wouldn't have been crying on national TV, begging women to have more kids.
朝鲜的人口也在枯竭。
否则金不会在国家电视台上哭诉，乞求女性多生孩子。
Jay Stepien
It’s not what I heard from the mouths of West Germans: The East Germans are lazy, not disciplined , ready to backstab each other for favours from Stasi, not happy to properly work in factory.
Look at Mutti Angela Merkel, from East Germany, what has she brought us inviting half of Middle East to Europe.
这不是我从西德人嘴里听到的:东德人懒惰，没有纪律，为了从斯塔西那里得到好处，随时准备互相背后捅刀子，不愿意在工厂里正常工作。
看看来自东德的默克尔，她给我们带来了什么，邀请了半个中东国家来到欧洲。
Markus Skubic
「Look at Mutti Angela Merkel, from East Germany, what has she brought us inviting half of Middle East to Europe.」
She learned from the best.
And by best I mean big West German industrialists, who brought in millions of Balkan and Turkish Gästarbeiter, many who never left.
她向最好的人学习。
我说的最好的人是指西德的大实业家，他们带来了数百万巴尔干和土耳其外籍劳工，许多人从未离开过。
Daniel Sifrit
I was in West Germany at the time.. a lot of Germans are bitter about the costs and the politics that were involved. You can’t really trust their opinions.
One big issue with Socialism is that it requires EVERYONE to work, so they will keep a factory fully staffed even if they are only producing at half rate. So a lot of East Germans, generally the least educated and 「able」 had jobs where they never did any work.
They aren’t really LAZY, they just don’t have transferable skills and already have issues with the transition of having housing and all needs 「provided」 — to being turfed out and an OPEN burden on the social system instead of a hidden one.
我是曾经的西德人。许多德国人对成本和涉及的政治怨声载道。你不能真的相信他们的（表面）观点。
社会主义的一个大问题是，它要求每个人都工作，所以即使工厂只以一半的速度生产，他们也会让工厂满员。所以很多东德人，通常是受教育程度最低和没有能力的人，也会有一份从来没有去上工过的工作。
他们并不是真的懒惰，他们只是没有可用的技能，并且从原来的「供应」住房和物资，过渡到资本社会中遇到了问题——被排斥，成为社会的公开负担，而不是隐藏的负担。
Esila Rali
Frankly, they don’t., solely due to economics. Young South Koreans are already having a very hard time finding decent-ish paying jobs as is and see reunification with North Korea as 「oh shit, more competition for the very few jobs still available!」
This is felt specifically for blue-collar jobs.
坦率地说，他们不会统一的。完全是由于经济原因。
年轻的韩国人已经很难找到体面的工作了，他们认为与朝鲜统一是「哦，该死，为数不多的工作机会的竞争将更激烈!」
这种情况尤其适用于蓝领工作。
Andrew Makar
For South Korea, the only thing more expensive than an all out war would be reunification.
对韩国来说，唯一比全面战争更昂贵的是统一。
Rob C
And for most of the 27 years of German separation it was possible for West Germans to visit the East, so personal connections were not completely severed.
在德国分离27年的大部分时间里，西德人可以访问东德，所以个人联系并没有完全断绝。
Victor Chan
You mean that the Berlin wall was not meant to stop immigration, and that the Soviet claim that the wall was to protect anarchists is true.
你的意思是柏林墙不是为了阻止移民，苏联声称柏林墙是为了保护无政府主义者，这是真的。
Daniel Sifrit
No, he meant what he said. The Soviets were quite willing to allow in Western Hard currency to allow families from WEST to visit.
Nobody has any doubts what the wall was there for.
不，他的意思是，苏联人非常乐意接受西方硬通货，允许西方家庭来参观。
没有人会怀疑这堵墙的存在目的。
Victor Chan
You mean that Germans can freely travel through the Berlin Wall from both sides? Your claim that family can visit their family members on East German implied that they can also return to West German.
你的意思是德国人可以自由地在柏林墙两边穿行?
你的意思是家人可以去东德探望他们的家人，这意味着他们也可以回到西德？
Daniel Sifrit
I said they allowed families from the WEST to VISIT. Quit trying to change what I said to fit what you are trying to push. Families could visit, add hard currency to the economy, and then they went back to the west.
The wall was there to prevent East Germans from defecting to the West. Anyone who wanted to spend money, INCLUDING US GIs, was welcome to visit East Berlin.
我说的是，他们允许来自西德的家庭来参观。不要试图改变我说的话来引证你的观点。家庭可以访问的，这可以为经济增加硬通货，然后他们回到西德。
柏林墙的存在是为了防止东德人叛逃到西边。东柏林欢迎任何想花钱的人，包括美国大兵。
That is what Checkpoint Charlie was - the official crossing point for allied soldiers to visit East Germany. And yes, almost all of them came back. It wasn’t hard to get 「Special Orders」 allowing you to cross issued by the Berlin Brigade.
这就是查理检查站——盟军士兵访问东德的官方过境点。是的，几乎所有人都回来了。要拿到柏林旅签发的「特别命令」，让你通过这里并不难。
Klaas Van Aarsen
I was impressed that the 2 Germanies reunited without much resistance or unrest. I think it was economically not attractive. However, if I understand correctly, they were fine with reuniting anyway because the Germanies considered each other 「family」. It probably helped that they still shared the same language.
令我印象深刻的是，两个德国在没有太多抵抗或动荡的情况下统一了。我认为这在经济上没有吸引力。然而，如果我理解正确的话，他们无论如何都愿意团聚，因为德国人认为彼此是「家人」。他们仍然使用同一种语言，这可能有所帮助。
Lars Helms
Not only 「family」 (in the widest sense really) but West Germany regarded East Germans as their citizens throughout, meaning if you made it to the West you automatically became a West German citizen. West Germany’s constitution had also been set up with the eventually of the reason for the separation ceasing to exist in mind. Two distinct paragraphs (articles?) allowed for either joining the West German federation upon request (which was used for reunification) or to create a new German state if all agree. Both were dexed / modified / substituted after reunification to keep up with reality. It should also be noted that some people had proposed to get rid of these articles altogether before East Germany collapsed, it was thought the separation was here to stay.
不仅是「家人」(最广泛的意义上)，而且西德一直把东德人视为他们的公民，这意味着如果你成功进入西德，你就自动成为西德公民。西德宪法的制定也考虑到了「分裂的原因」不再存在后的情况。
其中有两个段落或条款，允许根据请求加入西德联邦(用于统一)或在所有人同意的情况下创建一个新的德意志国家。统一后，两条款都被删除/修改/取代，以适应现实。还应该指出的是，在东德崩溃之前，一些人曾提议完全删掉这些条款，因为人们认为这种分离会一直存在。
Anna
Korea has no chance to unify anymore. This is an inconvenient truth that many Koreans do not want to publicly admit. Korea has no chance to unify because both do not want to unify. If one side at least maintains the determination to unify, Korea still has a chance. But this is not what happens. In addition, I think Koreans today do not have the same obsession with unity as Vietnamese people. Vietnamese people have a strong obsession with Independence and Unification.
朝鲜半岛再也没有统一的机会了。这是很多朝鲜半岛人不愿公开承认的事实。朝鲜半岛没有统一的机会，因为双方都不想统一。如果至少有一方坚持统一的决心，朝鲜半岛还有机会。但事实并非如此。另外，我认为现在的韩国人不像越南人那样执着于团结。越南人对独立和统一有着强烈的执念。
Barney Burnett
I doubt very much South Korea would want the headache, the level of migration north to south would be unmanageable for a start, then there’s the cost and also the societal attitudes of those in the south to contend with. In essence, it ain’t ever going to happen. More likely NK will become part of China.
我非常怀疑韩国是否想要这个令人头疼的问题，从北向南的移民潮一开始就无法控制，然后是成本和南方人的社会态度。从本质上讲，这是不可能发生的。朝鲜更有可能成为中国的一部分。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Yusuf Habibie
The Chinese doesn’t care as long as US can’t put ICBMs at their doorstep
只要美国不能把洲际弹道导弹放在他们家门口，中国人就不在乎朝鲜怎样。
Robert Édouard Wielander
South Korea has advanced to such a level of technology and every other aspect of human achievements that reunification with North Korea would be no more than acquiring a primitive state along with the myriad of problems that would entail.
韩国技术水平和人类成就已经发展到，与朝鲜的统一只不过是获得一个原始国家，以及随之而来的无数问题。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Andrew
I can't see China liking the idea of Korea uniting.
我看不出中国喜欢朝韩统一的想法。
Yusuf Habibie
Yeah. If South Korea took control of Korean peninsula it means US can place its ICBMs there. It will get ugly and another starting point of World War III like Ukraine.
是的。如果韩国控制了朝鲜半岛，这意味着美国可以在那里部署洲际弹道导弹。它将变得丑陋，像乌克兰一样成为第三次世界大战的另一个起点。
Sten Drescher
The US might expand its bases from South Korea to North Korea, but there wouldn’t be much of a point in putting ICBMs there.
美国可能会将其基地从韩国扩展到朝鲜，但在那里部署洲际弹道导弹没有多大意义。
Вадим Тульчинский
We know from the history examples of both successful and unsuccessful unifications of the previously separated peoples in a nation. Success stories from the 19 centuary Europe include Italy and Germany. Yugoslavia is a well known story with a different end. All the unification attempts of Nordic nations were finally unsuccessful. China and India remember several dissolutions and unifications each. My Ukraine has been compound of people of different history, religion, language and etnicity. But now she fights for existence, and I see great sence of unity among the people. Will south Coreans feel their northern neighbours as brothers in the future? Who knows. But in this possible case all cultural and economic considerations will fail.
我们从历史中可以了解到，以前分离的民族在一个国家内统一的成功以及不成功的例子。
19世纪欧洲的成功案例包括意大利和德国。南斯拉夫是一个众所周知的故事，但结局却不同。北欧国家所有的统一尝试最终都以失败告终。中国和印度各自都记得自己的几次分裂和统一。我的乌克兰是由不同历史、宗教、语言和种族的人组成的，但现在她为生存而战，我看到了人民之间的大团结。
韩国人将来会把他们的北方邻居视为兄弟吗?谁知道呢。但在这种可能的情况下，所有的文化和经济考虑都将失败。
Peter Smith
To reunify both would cost so much it's not worth the expense .,. Germany is still paying for the reunification if East and West and yet East Germany was a hell of a lot better condition than North Korea, that place has literally no infrastructure in place what so ever
让两国重新统一成本将太高，不值得。就算东德和西德的条件比朝鲜好得多，德国至今仍然在为统一付出代价，那个地方实际上没有任何基础设施。
