北韓和南韓會成為統一的國家嗎
Tomaž Vargazon
Odds of that are falling by the year. The problem with the two Koreas is manyfold. Often East and West Germany are used for comparison, but that comparison fails. Two Germanies were truly separated between 1961 and 1989, that’s 27 years. Look at a calendar, 「27 years ago」 isn’t at some distant point during the Cold War any more. It’s 1997, well into the internet era. There was contact between East and West prior to 1961 and even if you go all the way back to 1945, the separation still only lasted for 44 years.
這種可能性正在逐年下降。
南北韓之間的問題是多方面的。東德和西德經常被用來作比較，但這種比較是不成立的。兩個德國在1961年到1989年間真正分離，也就是27年。看看行事曆，「27年前」不再是冷戰時期的某個遙遠時刻。那是1997年，互聯網時代剛剛開始。在1961年之前，東西德之間就有接觸，即使你嚴格算到1945年，這種分離也只持續了44年。
The two Koreas have been separated since 1945, with essentially no contact since 1953. That’s over 70 years at this point, very few of the elderly can still remember the time prior to that and that time was anything but pleasant anyhow.
The separation was far harsher than with two Germanies, you could get West German TV in most of East Germany. Watching South Korean TV in the north is punishable by harsh prison sentences or death. Languague changed too, North Koreans went with an older form of Korean and resisted outside influences.
Mental processes too changed, right now the two Koreas are two different nations and adapting to South Korean life as a defector as as challenging as adapting to a North Korean life style would be.
南北韓兩國自1945年以來一直處於分裂狀態，自1953年以來基本上沒有聯系。到現在已經70多年了，很少有老年人還記得在那之前的時光，無論如何，那段時間一點也不愉快。這種分離比兩個德國的分離要嚴重得多，你在東德的大部份地區都能看到西德電視。在北韓看南韓電視會被處以嚴厲的監禁或死刑。
語言也發生了變化，北韓人使用了一種更古老的北韓語，並抵制了外界的影響。心理過程也發生了變化，現在南北韓是兩個不同的國家，作為一個脫北者，適應南韓的生活和適應北韓的生活方式一樣具有挑戰性。
It is entirely possible the two Koreas will grow apart to a point where they will be two distinct nations. They’re more than halfway there, I would say. A reunification is still possible at this point, although it wouldn’t be nearly as easy as it was with Germany - and 35 years into German reunification it still isn’t finished by the way. It’s come a long way, but not finished and won’t be for another several decades at least.
南北韓完全有可能分裂成兩個不同的國家。我想說，他們已經在邁向兩個獨立國家的方向上走了一大半了。在這一點上，統一仍然是可能的，盡管它不會像德國那樣容易——順便說一下，德國統一35年了，這個行程仍然沒有完成。它已經走了很長一段路，但還沒有完成，至少在未來幾十年內也不會完成。
Rob C
…I wonder whether South Korea would even want reunification at this point. The cost would likely bankrupt them.
我不知道南韓現在是否想要統一，成本可能會使他們破產。
Tomaž Vargazon
Not just 「at this point」, but 「at any point in the past 40 years」. Same reason.
不僅是「現在」，是「過去40年裏任何時候」。理由同上。
Zinserhöhung
Both sides always wanted to unify before the new president took office, of course each side wants to annexe the other Korea under its own system as they know a unified Korea will be more powerful. There has been a Ministry of Unification in South Korea. South Korea’s former president Moon Jae-in is a son of North Korean refugees and the hometown of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is actually in South Korea.
在新總統上任之前，雙方都想統一，當然雙方都想把另一個北韓並入自己的體制，因為他們知道統一的北韓會更強大。南韓有一個統一部。
南韓前總統文在寅是北韓難民的兒子，北韓領導人金正恩的家鄉實際上在南韓。
Frank
If Korea has been separated for 70 years, how can the North Korean leaders home town be in the south? He's not over 70 years old.
如果北韓半島已經分裂了70年，北韓領導人的家鄉怎麽會在南方?他還不到70歲。
Zinserhöhung
Hometown is where the ancestors are originally from. His family originated from Jeonju, North Joella Province in South Korea. In 1860, his great-great-grandfather, Kim Ung-u, settled in Pyongyang North Korea.
家鄉是祖先的故鄉。他的家族是全州人。1860年，他的曾曾祖父Kim Ung-u在北韓平壤定居。
Frank
I see, so he's not from there. Has never been there. Only the family from long past oriented from there.
I'd say that somewhat deceiving
我明白了，所以他不是本地人。從來沒有去過那裏。只是家人從很久以前就離開了那裏。
我得說這有點騙人。
Xuanzi
Ancestral home*
Hometown is where one grew up.
那是祖籍。
家鄉指的是你的出生地。
Ben Chan
The North was richer than the South when the separation took place.
南北分離時，北方比南方富裕。
Mike Mike
Was
過去是過去。
Martin David McCoy
I’m not sure that was true because the separation happened after the Japanese occupied Korea and their defeat. The com...sts took the North when China com...sts backed them and Seoul was the largest city in the country and they were in the south. The North was always more agricultural than the South who had more industry.
我不確定這是真的，因為分離發生在日本占領北韓並戰敗之後。北韓共產黨在中國***的支持下占領了北方，首爾是全國最大的城市，他們占領在南方。北方總是比南方更註重農業，而南方有更多的工業。
Eugene Cho
Its the opposite, the South was agrarian, mainly rice patties. The North inherited Japanese shipyards at Wonson and other heavy industry.
For the first eight years after separation North Korea was by far the safer bet to prosper.
Why Do Some Nations Prosper? The Case of North and South Korea - Foreign Policy Research Institute
The South Korean government ultimately took a page from post war Japan’s government sponsored corporate welfare program that created Sony, Mitsubishi, Toshiba, Panasonic/National etc using very favorable tax structures, very low interest loans, protectionist import policies etc. This was the keiretsu system and was monumentally successful.
How Eight Conglomerates Dominate Japanese Industry
The South Korean version was called the Chaebol, and resulted in corporate giants like Hyundai, Samsung, LG (Lucky Goldstar), etc.
Korean Chaebols explained: the empires of South Korea
相反，南方以農業為主，主要是大米。北韓繼承了日本在元山的造船廠和其他重工業。
在分離後的頭八年裏，北韓是更安全的繁榮選擇。
連結：【為什麽有些國家會繁榮?北韓和南韓的案例】——外交政策研究所
南韓政府最終借鑒了戰後日本政府贊助的企業福利計劃，利用非常優惠的稅收結構、非常低的利率貸款、保護主義進口政策等。這些政策曾經也創造了索尼、三菱、東芝、松下等公司。這就是企業聯盟制度，而且取得了巨大的成功。
連結：【八大集團如何主宰日本工業】
南韓的版本被稱為財閥，並產生了現代、三星、LG等企業巨頭。
連結：【南韓財閥的解釋：韓帝國】
Martin David McCoy
After doing some further research, I stand corrected.
在做了進一步的了解之後，我更正我的立場。
Santosh Kumar
Because it would take the threat of nuclear warfare away from them. Also they are running out of people, reunification should kick that can down the road for atleast a few decades.
因為這將使他們遠離核戰爭的威脅。此外，他們的人口正在耗盡，統一應該能把這個問題推遲至少幾十年。
Calin CETERAS
They are running out of South Korean people. Reunification will not solve that problem.
And by the way, the East Germans were basically the best of the com...st nations, and they still had issues of integration.
南韓勞動力在枯竭，統一不會解決這個問題。
順便說一下，東德基本上是共產主義國家中經濟條件最好的，（即便如此）他們仍然有融合的問題。
John Mears
North koreans are running out of people as well.
Otherwise Kim wouldn't have been crying on national TV, begging women to have more kids.
北韓的人口也在枯竭。
否則金不會在國家電視台上哭訴，乞求女性多生孩子。
Jay Stepien
It’s not what I heard from the mouths of West Germans: The East Germans are lazy, not disciplined , ready to backstab each other for favours from Stasi, not happy to properly work in factory.
Look at Mutti Angela Merkel, from East Germany, what has she brought us inviting half of Middle East to Europe.
這不是我從西德人嘴裏聽到的:東德人懶惰，沒有紀律，為了從斯塔西那裏得到好處，隨時準備互相背後捅刀子，不願意在工廠裏正常工作。
看看來自東德的梅克爾，她給我們帶來了什麽，邀請了半個中東國家來到歐洲。
Markus Skubic
「Look at Mutti Angela Merkel, from East Germany, what has she brought us inviting half of Middle East to Europe.」
She learned from the best.
And by best I mean big West German industrialists, who brought in millions of Balkan and Turkish Gästarbeiter, many who never left.
她向最好的人學習。
我說的最好的人是指西德的大實業家，他們帶來了數百萬巴爾幹和土耳其外籍勞工，許多人從未離開過。
Daniel Sifrit
I was in West Germany at the time.. a lot of Germans are bitter about the costs and the politics that were involved. You can’t really trust their opinions.
One big issue with Socialism is that it requires EVERYONE to work, so they will keep a factory fully staffed even if they are only producing at half rate. So a lot of East Germans, generally the least educated and 「able」 had jobs where they never did any work.
They aren’t really LAZY, they just don’t have transferable skills and already have issues with the transition of having housing and all needs 「provided」 — to being turfed out and an OPEN burden on the social system instead of a hidden one.
我是曾經的西德人。許多德國人對成本和涉及的政治怨聲載道。你不能真的相信他們的（表面）觀點。
社會主義的一個大問題是，它要求每個人都工作，所以即使工廠只以一半的速度生產，他們也會讓工廠滿員。所以很多東德人，通常是受教育程度最低和沒有能力的人，也會有一份從來沒有去上工過的工作。
他們並不是真的懶惰，他們只是沒有可用的技能，並且從原來的「供應」住房和物資，過渡到資本社會中遇到了問題——被排斥，成為社會的公開負擔，而不是隱藏的負擔。
Esila Rali
Frankly, they don’t., solely due to economics. Young South Koreans are already having a very hard time finding decent-ish paying jobs as is and see reunification with North Korea as 「oh shit, more competition for the very few jobs still available!」
This is felt specifically for blue-collar jobs.
坦率地說，他們不會統一的。完全是由於經濟原因。
年輕的南韓人已經很難找到體面的工作了，他們認為與北韓統一是「哦，該死，為數不多的工作機會的競爭將更激烈!」
這種情況尤其適用於藍領工作。
Andrew Makar
For South Korea, the only thing more expensive than an all out war would be reunification.
對南韓來說，唯一比全面戰爭更昂貴的是統一。
Rob C
And for most of the 27 years of German separation it was possible for West Germans to visit the East, so personal connections were not completely severed.
在德國分離27年的大部份時間裏，西德人可以存取東德，所以個人聯系並沒有完全斷絕。
Victor Chan
You mean that the Berlin wall was not meant to stop immigration, and that the Soviet claim that the wall was to protect anarchists is true.
你的意思是柏林墻不是為了阻止移民，蘇聯聲稱柏林墻是為了保護無政府主義者，這是真的。
Daniel Sifrit
No, he meant what he said. The Soviets were quite willing to allow in Western Hard currency to allow families from WEST to visit.
Nobody has any doubts what the wall was there for.
不，他的意思是，蘇聯人非常樂意接受西方硬通貨，允許西方家庭來參觀。
沒有人會懷疑這堵墻的存在目的。
Victor Chan
You mean that Germans can freely travel through the Berlin Wall from both sides? Your claim that family can visit their family members on East German implied that they can also return to West German.
你的意思是德國人可以自由地在柏林墻兩邊穿行?
你的意思是家人可以去東德探望他們的家人，這意味著他們也可以回到西德？
Daniel Sifrit
I said they allowed families from the WEST to VISIT. Quit trying to change what I said to fit what you are trying to push. Families could visit, add hard currency to the economy, and then they went back to the west.
The wall was there to prevent East Germans from defecting to the West. Anyone who wanted to spend money, INCLUDING US GIs, was welcome to visit East Berlin.
我說的是，他們允許來自西德的家庭來參觀。不要試圖改變我說的話來引證你的觀點。家庭可以存取的，這可以為經濟增加硬通貨，然後他們回到西德。
柏林墻的存在是為了防止東德人叛逃到西邊。東柏林歡迎任何想花錢的人，包括美國大兵。
That is what Checkpoint Charlie was - the official crossing point for allied soldiers to visit East Germany. And yes, almost all of them came back. It wasn’t hard to get 「Special Orders」 allowing you to cross issued by the Berlin Brigade.
這就是查理檢查站——盟軍士兵存取東德的官方過境點。是的，幾乎所有人都回來了。要拿到柏林旅簽發的「特別命令」，讓你透過這裏並不難。
Klaas Van Aarsen
I was impressed that the 2 Germanies reunited without much resistance or unrest. I think it was economically not attractive. However, if I understand correctly, they were fine with reuniting anyway because the Germanies considered each other 「family」. It probably helped that they still shared the same language.
令我印象深刻的是，兩個德國在沒有太多抵抗或動蕩的情況下統一了。我認為這在經濟上沒有吸重力。然而，如果我理解正確的話，他們無論如何都願意團聚，因為德國人認為彼此是「家人」。他們仍然使用同一種語言，這可能有所幫助。
Lars Helms
Not only 「family」 (in the widest sense really) but West Germany regarded East Germans as their citizens throughout, meaning if you made it to the West you automatically became a West German citizen. West Germany’s constitution had also been set up with the eventually of the reason for the separation ceasing to exist in mind. Two distinct paragraphs (articles?) allowed for either joining the West German federation upon request (which was used for reunification) or to create a new German state if all agree. Both were dexed / modified / substituted after reunification to keep up with reality. It should also be noted that some people had proposed to get rid of these articles altogether before East Germany collapsed, it was thought the separation was here to stay.
不僅是「家人」(最廣泛的意義上)，而且西德一直把東德人視為他們的公民，這意味著如果你成功進入西德，你就自動成為西德公民。西德憲法的制定也考慮到了「分裂的原因」不再存在後的情況。
其中有兩個段落或條款，允許根據請求加入西德聯邦(用於統一)或在所有人同意的情況下建立一個新的德意誌國家。統一後，兩條款都被刪除/修改/取代，以適應現實。還應該指出的是，在東德崩潰之前，一些人曾提議完全刪掉這些條款，因為人們認為這種分離會一直存在。
Anna
Korea has no chance to unify anymore. This is an inconvenient truth that many Koreans do not want to publicly admit. Korea has no chance to unify because both do not want to unify. If one side at least maintains the determination to unify, Korea still has a chance. But this is not what happens. In addition, I think Koreans today do not have the same obsession with unity as Vietnamese people. Vietnamese people have a strong obsession with Independence and Unification.
北韓半島再也沒有統一的機會了。這是很多北韓半島人不願公開承認的事實。北韓半島沒有統一的機會，因為雙方都不想統一。如果至少有一方堅持統一的決心，北韓半島還有機會。但事實並非如此。另外，我認為現在的南韓人不像越南人那樣執著於團結。越南人對獨立和統一有著強烈的執念。
Barney Burnett
I doubt very much South Korea would want the headache, the level of migration north to south would be unmanageable for a start, then there’s the cost and also the societal attitudes of those in the south to contend with. In essence, it ain’t ever going to happen. More likely NK will become part of China.
我非常懷疑南韓是否想要這個令人頭疼的問題，從北向南的移民潮一開始就無法控制，然後是成本和南方人的社會態度。從本質上講，這是不可能發生的。北韓更有可能成為中國的一部份。
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Yusuf Habibie
The Chinese doesn’t care as long as US can’t put ICBMs at their doorstep
只要美國不能把洲際彈道飛彈放在他們家門口，中國人就不在乎北韓怎樣。
Robert Édouard Wielander
South Korea has advanced to such a level of technology and every other aspect of human achievements that reunification with North Korea would be no more than acquiring a primitive state along with the myriad of problems that would entail.
南韓技術水平胡人類成就已經發展到，與北韓的統一只不過是獲得一個原始國家，以及隨之而來的無數問題。
原創轉譯：龍騰網 https://www.ltaaa.cn 轉載請註明出處
Andrew
I can't see China liking the idea of Korea uniting.
我看不出中國喜歡南北韓統一的想法。
Yusuf Habibie
Yeah. If South Korea took control of Korean peninsula it means US can place its ICBMs there. It will get ugly and another starting point of World War III like Ukraine.
是的。如果南韓控制了北韓半島，這意味著美國可以在那裏部署洲際彈道飛彈。它將變得醜陋，像烏克蘭一樣成為第三次世界大戰的另一個起點。
Sten Drescher
The US might expand its bases from South Korea to North Korea, but there wouldn’t be much of a point in putting ICBMs there.
美國可能會將其基地從南韓擴充套件到北韓，但在那裏部署洲際彈道飛彈沒有多大意義。
Вадим Тульчинский
We know from the history examples of both successful and unsuccessful unifications of the previously separated peoples in a nation. Success stories from the 19 centuary Europe include Italy and Germany. Yugoslavia is a well known story with a different end. All the unification attempts of Nordic nations were finally unsuccessful. China and India remember several dissolutions and unifications each. My Ukraine has been compound of people of different history, religion, language and etnicity. But now she fights for existence, and I see great sence of unity among the people. Will south Coreans feel their northern neighbours as brothers in the future? Who knows. But in this possible case all cultural and economic considerations will fail.
我們從歷史中可以了解到，以前分離的民族在一個國家內統一的成功以及不成功的例子。
19世紀歐洲的成功案例包括義大利和德國。南斯拉夫是一個眾所周知的故事，但結局卻不同。北歐國家所有的統一嘗試最終都以失敗告終。中國和印度各自都記得自己的幾次分裂和統一。我的烏克蘭是由不同歷史、宗教、語言和種族的人組成的，但現在她為生存而戰，我看到了人民之間的大團結。
南韓人將來會把他們的北方鄰居視為兄弟嗎?誰知道呢。但在這種可能的情況下，所有的文化和經濟考慮都將失敗。
Peter Smith
To reunify both would cost so much it's not worth the expense .,. Germany is still paying for the reunification if East and West and yet East Germany was a hell of a lot better condition than North Korea, that place has literally no infrastructure in place what so ever
讓兩國重新統一成本將太高，不值得。就算東德和西德的條件比北韓好得多，德國至今仍然在為統一付出代價，那個地方實際上沒有任何基礎設施。
